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By Steve UMIDHA
The US election outcome will have less impact on Sun Saharan African region than on other regions, according to a report by BMI – a Fitch Solutions Company.
The September survey further notes that under a Harris presidency, in its core view, “we would see continued support for the US’s key allies in SSA, such as Nigeria and Kenya,” adding that Harris is likely to adopt a softer tone towards countries with good relations with China and Russia, supporting US-South Africa ties
On the other hand, the report found that the US dollar would likely strengthen under Trump, leading to weaker SSA currencies and increased inflationary risks.
Similarly, a potential tariff on China imposed by Trump could slow Chinese growth, negatively impacting SSA exports.
This will South Africa is particularly rendered vulnerable to periods of dollar strength, given the South African rand is a widely traded currency. It could lead to heightened inflationary pressures in South Africa, as well as a contractionary response by the SARB.
Oil production in SSA will fail to recover to 2000s-era highs, leading to economic stagnation and rising political risk in oil-dependent economies like Angola.
However, some markets will experience rising hydrocarbons production over the next decade, but per capita gains will be limited.