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Russia-Ukraine: Conflict To Extend Well Into 2026
Another worse scenario would see Russia move towards full mobilisation, and, with assistance of Belarus, renews offensive against Northern Ukraine/Kyiv
Russia is still not ready for peace, as it seeks to maximise territorial gains and weaken Ukraine militarily, with further intense fighting likely, mainly in Eastern Ukraine, according to the latest insights into the ongoing war between the two countries. Still, neither side has enough power to fulfill its objectives.
Trump’s frustration with Putin’s intransigence could prompt the US to raise sanctions on Russia or abandon mediation efforts, the BMI report titled Political & Geopolitical Risks 2026 And Beyond reveals, which also predicts that fighting will likely reduce in intensity by late 2026, as Russia and Ukraine face greater resource constraints, and the troops.
Ceasefire likely to eventually emerge, but would collapse over circumstances like realistic terms and conditions, implementation, and violations. Russia could further test European defenses through airspace violations or probing measures on land or at sea, and sabotage.
However, the report notes that US President Donald Trump may be more flexible on easing sanctions on Russia and seeking economic cooperation, such as resource development.