Kenya Braces for Turbulent Year as Political Instability Tops Risks, Survey Finds

Kenyan businesses are bracing for another turbulent year, months after demonstrations led by Generation Z.

A new World Security Report 2025, a joint study by Allied Universal and G4S, shows political instability and civil unrest overtaking economic volatility as the top hazards facing companies in the coming 12 months.

Key findings for Kenya indicate that 45% of chief security officers (CSOs) view political instability as their biggest concern, with 43% naming civil unrest as a close second—both well above regional averages.

More than one in five companies (21%) expect to be directly affected by protests or demonstrations over the next year, the highest rate reported anywhere in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Despite these security fears, there is a modest sense of optimism on the economic front: concerns about instability have fallen to 41%, down from 52% last year.

However, fraud—largely driven by financial pressures—remains the leading external threat, cited by 41% of firms.

“Political and civil unrest can have an immediate and costly impact on businesses and investor confidence, and security leaders are preparing to bolster their physical security programmes in response,” said Laurence Okelo, Managing Director of G4S Kenya.

“The predicted easing of economic instability provides some room for optimism, but companies must continue building resilience through security upgrades, workforce safety and contingency planning.”

Physical security budgets are set to rise, with 79% of Kenyan businesses indicating increased spending—one of the highest rates in the region.

Top priorities include investment in new technology and infrastructure (83%), risk assessments (71%), and regulatory compliance (66%).

The findings are drawn from 2,352 CSOs across 31 countries in medium and large global companies with total revenues exceeding $25 trillion.

In Kenya, 58 security chiefs participated, with 174 from Sub-Saharan Africa overall. The report also incorporates insights from 200 global institutional investors managing over $1 trillion in assets.

Economic losses tied to the Gen-Z protests have been significant, particularly impacting retail and hospitality.

Nearly half of Kenyan respondents (45%) reported revenue losses due to security incidents, and more Kenyan firms than anywhere else in Sub-Saharan Africa reported increased insurance costs.

Institutional investors warned that a major security incident could slash a listed company’s value by as much as 32%.

“Consistent with the 2023 findings, fraud remains the dominant internal and external threat linked to economic instability. Despite these challenges, there are opportunities across the region, and it is encouraging to see planned investments in smart security infrastructure and AI-powered video surveillance,” said Christo Terblanche, regional president of G4S in Africa.