Soaring fuel prices and disrupted supply chains will push up property prices, other sectors of the economy by Q3

Barely four months into 2026, and already there is a high level of tension across the world. Today, unlike in the past, fuel prices are no longer being shaped by market fundamentals but also by geopolitical instability.

With the ongoing rise in conflict in essential oil-producing regions, particularly Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, global economies will likely face significant implications in many ways, one of which will definitely affect businesses of all kinds.

As of now, the global oil supply may be disrupted by the ongoing conflict, and fuel prices will more likely than not rise over the next few months.

As of April 2026, although local pump prices in Kenya have remained relatively stable in the most recent EPRA reviews, the calm before the storm is palpable. Experts warn that if the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for 20% of the world’s oil, remains unstable, global crude oil prices could soar toward $150 per barrel, potentially pushing Kenyan pump prices to unprecedented levels of KShs. 230 to Kshs. 250 per liter by the third quarter of the year.

How Rising Fuel Costs Drive Up Costs

For an economy like Kenya’s, fuel is the “silent partner” in every transaction. It is embedded in the DNA of the investment, agricultural, and manufacturing sectors. When energy costs spike, a predictable chain reaction follows.

Case in point, fuel is embedded in the transportation of food, amenities, and construction materials, the operation of machines, the mobility of labor and logistics from one point to another, and the development of infrastructure. Whenever fuel prices go up, property development costs follow suit, which in turn leads to skyrocketing property prices.

Projected Shift in Buyer Behavior Within the Real Estate Sector

Beyond the cost fluctuations, rising fuel prices are also shaping how and where people choose to invest. This is mainly due to the high cost of commuting between places. To curb the high cost and time of commuting, investors will now prioritize accessibility and proximity to amenities and infrastructure corridors. All savvy investors will now look for a more strategic positioning for both the investors and developers alike.

For developers such as Username Properties, this is a chance to reinforce the value of projects beyond just the price. This can be achieved through coming up with the following:

• Well-developed plans of investment with value additions.
• Flexible payment plans to alleviate the current economic pressures.
• Prime and strategic locations such as this will be a key differentiator.

Why Timing is Your Greatest Asset

While there is always a slim hope that oil supply could stabilize by the end of Q2, the reality of inflation means that once prices for goods and services go up, they rarely come back down to previous levels.

For the casual observer, rising fuel is a reason to wait. For the strategic investor, it is a signal to act. Waiting for the market to stabilize usually means waiting until the price has already hit its new, higher ceiling.

Conclusion

While many worry about whether the world has enough oil, what people should really be worried about is whether the reserves of oil can move in an efficient, affordable, and consistent way across the globe. Nevertheless, it is essential to understand that the impact of rising fuel costs will be felt in the groceries you pay for, the clothes you buy, and right down to the investment you choose to make. Make the right investment today.

The author is the the CEO of Username Investment Limited