Sustainable aviation fuel stirs up Africa investors interest

Sustainable aviation fuel development is moving from dispersed pilot projects into structured industrial planning, shaped by climate regulation, capital inflows, and rising international demand.

The shift matters because it will determine whether African economies move up the value chain into refining and fuel exports or remain positioned primarily as feedstock suppliers within a tightening global aviation regime.

“Scaling SAF will require coordinated policy frameworks, long-term offtake agreements, and significant investment across jurisdictions,” ICAO officials said during Aviation Climate Week in Montreal, held between June 2 and June 4.

Regulatory intent is increasingly being matched by capital deployment. Across Africa, SAF projects are transitioning from feasibility work into bankable infrastructure anchored on export contracts, development finance, and compliance-driven demand from Europe and the Middle East.

Kenya illustrates this transition at project level. Kenya Airways and Rubis Energy Kenya, in May 2026, signed a memorandum of understanding to develop a dedicated sustainable aviation fuel refinery targeting around 32,000 tonnes of annual production.

The project, to be located in Nairobi near Jomo Kenyatta International Airport, is designed to produce low-carbon fuel from local waste feedstocks, including used cooking oil and animal fats. Dragonfly, Rubis’s modular refinery partner, is expected to deliver the facility within 24 months.

The memorandum was signed during the Africa Forward Summit in Nairobi in the presence of Kenyan President William Ruto and French President Emmanuel Macron.

According to George Kamal, acting group managing director and chief executive officer of Kenya Airways, the project reflects the operational urgency of aviation decarbonisation.

“The expansion of air transport is linked to a growing share of global greenhouse gas emissions. Currently, Jomo Kenyatta International Airport consumes 2.9 million litres of jet fuel every day, an amount equivalent to filling the tanks of 52,727 family cars.”

Kenya Airways has been building a staged SAF rollout ahead of the refinery announcement. In 2023, the airline operated its first SAF-powered return showcase flight to Amsterdam, marking its initial commercial validation of SAF use.

By 2025, it had expanded to 16 SAF-powered return showcase flights between September and October, including the first intra-African SAF flight to Cape Town. All flights used SAF produced in Kenya at a 2% blend, with independent verification of emissions, fuel, and waste metrics conducted by the Royal Netherlands Aerospace Centre (NLR).

The airline’s roadmap outlines a gradual scale-up between 2026 and 2027 focused on expanding customer participation, increasing local supply, and piloting blending and logistics systems as regulatory approvals allow.

It targets higher blend availability on priority routes by 2030, with SAF expected to account for a growing share of total fuel consumption alongside longer-term alignment with net zero aviation goals by 2050.

The refinery proposal extends this trajectory upstream into production infrastructure.

In Egypt, Qatar-based Green Sky Capital is developing a sustainable aviation fuel facility in Ain Sokhna valued at more than US$200 million.

The plant is designed to produce about 200,000 tonnes of biofuels annually, including SAF, hydrotreated vegetable oil, and bio-naphtha.

Located within the Suez Canal Economic Zone, the project is positioned along a strategic export corridor linking African production to European aviation markets.

According to project developers, more than US$200 million has already been committed in early-stage financing from regional investors, including Al Mana Holding and Vision Invest.

The structure reflects how SAF infrastructure is increasingly built around secured offtake agreements rather than speculative production. Ain Sokhna is being positioned as a regional supply node for regulated aviation fuel markets, where certification determines market access.

In Southern Africa, South Africa is advancing a parallel export pathway built on electrofuels and certification-led access to regulated aviation markets. At Saldanha Bay in the Western Cape, Phelan Green, through its clean fuels subsidiary Phelan eFuels, is developing a commercial-scale electro-sustainable aviation fuel facility targeting European and United Kingdom export markets.

The project will deploy Honeywell renewable fuel technology, specifically the Universal Oil Products Fischer Tropsch (FT) Unicracking process, which converts FT liquids and waxes derived from captured carbon dioxide into aviation-grade synthetic fuel. Construction is scheduled to begin in Q4 2026.

Once operational, the facility is expected to produce more than 140,000 tonnes of eSAF annually for export, according to Phelan Green. Output is structured around compliance with aviation fuel certification standards required for access to EU and UK markets.

The project forms part of the broader Phelan Green Hydrogen Project, a R47-billion investment recognised by the South African government as a strategic green industrial initiative.

At the same time, Sasol has secured ISCC PLUS certification for SAF pathways at its Natref refinery in Sasolburg. The certification, issued by Germany’s TÜV SÜD, enables compliance-linked exports into the European Union under its Renewable Energy Directive framework.

Sasol has indicated production targets of 1–2 million litres in 2026, rising to 16 million litres in 2027 and up to 200 million litres by 2030 across its hybrid refining systems. These volumes remain marginal relative to global jet fuel demand but are strategically important for entry into regulated supply chains.

Other African markets remain earlier in the development cycle. Nigeria, Ghana, and Côte d’Ivoire are largely focused on policy frameworks, feedstock assessment, and aviation financing discussions rather than committed refinery-scale deployment.

The European Union has emerged as the central demand anchor shaping these investments. Under ReFuelEU Aviation rules, SAF blending requirements will rise from 2 percent in 2025 to 6 percent by 2030, with penalties for non-compliance across EU airports.

This mandate is creating a guaranteed demand floor for certified SAF producers. It is also reshaping project finance structures, pushing developers toward long-term offtake agreements and verified emissions accounting systems.

Globally, SAF remains a marginal component of aviation fuel consumption. Industry estimates cited by ICAO and IATA indicate SAF accounted for less than 1 percent of total jet fuel use in 2024, despite accelerating policy commitments across major aviation markets.

According to the International Air Transport Association, global SAF production is expected to reach about 2.4 million tonnes in 2026, equivalent to roughly 0.8 percent of aviation fuel demand, with an associated cost burden of about US$4.3 billion for airlines.

IATA has warned that the gap between policy ambition and production capacity continues to widen, citing limited policy sequencing, constrained renewable energy supply, and insufficient investment signals across the value chain.

It has also highlighted the need for expanded renewable electricity, secure feedstock systems, open access to fuel infrastructure, and harmonised certification and book-and-claim mechanisms to scale a global SAF market.

The financing challenge remains significant. ICAO estimates presented during Aviation Climate Week point to trillions of dollars in required investment for aviation decarbonisation by mid-century, with SAF supply chains identified as one of the most capital-intensive components.

Africa is projected to reach up to 0.6 million tonnes of SAF capacity by 2030, accounting for roughly 5–10 percent of global supply, according to the African Airlines Association.