Nuclear Security to rise in 2026

International concerns about nuclear weapons are likely to rise in 2026, according to BMI (formerly Business Monitor International) – a Fitch Solutions company that provides critical market intelligence, including country risk and political analysis.

But it is however, unclear whether the New START Treaty between the US and Russia will be renewed when it expires on February 5 2026.

The treaty limits both countries’ strategic nuclear arsenals and is the last remaining arms-control treaty between them. A failure to renew the treaty could potentially pave the way for a new nuclear arms race by the US and Russia.

“A failure to renew the treaty could potentially pave the way for a new nuclear arms race by the US and Russia, although there would still be financial constraints on this,” notes the report.

In September 2025, Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed a one-year extension of the treaty, but the US has yet to respond. Previously, US President Donald Trump had sought to incorporate China into nuclear arms control agreements with Russia, but Beijing is unwilling to set numerical restrictions on its atomic arsenal, which is much smaller than those of the US and Russia.

“Second, US President Donald Trump announced on October 30 that he wants the US to resume testing nuclear weapons after a hiatus since 1992. Although US Energy Secretary Chris Wright subsequently stated that ‘these are what we call non-critical explosions’ (ie, not atomic detonations), Putin warned that Moscow might respond with its own nuclear tests.

We believe this could result in tit for tat nuclear tests by the world’s major powers, which could raise geopolitical tensions worldwide,” says BMI.

The report further foresees, a possibility that Israel – possibly joined by the US – could carry out new airstrikes on Iran, if perceptions emerge that Tehran is reconstituting its nuclear programme or fails to reach a new, highly restrictive nuclear deal with the US.

A new potential Israeli/US attack could trigger a more forceful retaliation by Iran than that seen in June 2025.

BMI anticipates that the Trump administration will resume direct talks with North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un with a view to reaching a new nuclear deal. However, given that Pyongyang will continue to reject denuclearisation, “we believe that the best that both sides can realistically hope for is a limited deal that caps North Korea’s nuclear arsenal in exchange for some modest sanctions relief and improved diplomatic relations.”