Africa’s Ageing Presidents are a source of political risk – Report

By Steve UMIDHA

The gerontocratic nature of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)’s leadership structures – a system of rule by leaders who are substantially older than the general population – will become an increasing source of political risk over the medium term, according to a new economic forecast.

A survey by BMI – a FitchSolutions entity revealed that ageing leaders who are almost certain to be on the ballot in upcoming elections across several countries, including Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire, and Uganda, have potential risks to medium-term political stability and economic growth of those markets.

In this core scenario, policy continuity is expected. According to the report, new administrations coming after the departure of the old dogs will inherit significant challenges in infrastructure development, maintaining fiscal discipline, addressing domestic arrears, and accelerating economic diversification beyond the declining hydrocarbon sector.

“We expect that political risk will remain highest in SSA countries with either much younger or older leaders, reflecting persistent instability in junta-led markets (with younger leaders) and succession concerns in markets with older leaders,” the report noted.

Indeed, political leaders in SSA are typically much older than their counterparts in other regions, a dynamic which is particularly stark given the continent’s relatively youthful population.

President Paul Biya

Among the world’s oldest leaders, excluding leaders with little or no political authority, or who do not currently exercise such authority, SSA dominates, with the world’s oldest head of state, President Paul Biya of Cameroon, for instance, currently 92 years of age and seeking an eighth term in office.

The eventual departure of President Paul Biya is most likely to result in a managed succession within the ruling CPDM party, according to the firm’s prediction, anticipating the selection of a successor from Biya’s inner circle, potentially his son, Franck Biya, following constitutional protocols where the Senate president serves as interim leader before elections within 30 days.

BMI report says, alternatively, Biya might want to appoint his successor through constitutional amendment, mirroring his own rise to power in 1982.

President Ouattara

Ivory Coast’s President Ouattara’s eventual exit from politics, according to the report’s drafters, will introduce uncertainty into Côte d’Ivoire’s political landscape, with his departure likely to trigger factional competition within the ruling Rally of Houphouëtists for Democracy and Peace (RHDP).

“However, we believe that the RHDP’s robust organisational structure and firm control over state institutions should serve as stabilising forces, limiting the potential for extended instability or political breakdown. Indeed, the RHDP’s longstanding institutional framework should help manage succession dynamics, even amid internal competition for leadership positions.”

“We expect that political risk will remain highest in SSA countries with either much younger or older leaders.

Dividing the 49 SSA markets into septiles based on the age of their current leader, we then took the mean score of the Governance component of our proprietary Political Risk Index (scores out of 100; higher score = higher risk)

This shows that risks are highest in markets with much younger leaders.

This category includes three countries (Burkina Faso, Guinea, and Chad) that have seen military coups in recent years, whereas in Chad, the current leader (Mahamat Déby) came to power after replacing his father, who died during the 2021 Northern Chad Offensive,” reads the report first published in August 2025.

“A less probable scenario involves military intervention, despite Cameroon’s limited history of coups.

This could occur if various military factions united against an unpopular successor, similar to the August 2023 coup in Gabon. Should this play out, this would likely distract the armed forces from combating separatist groups in Anglophone regions and Islamist insurgents in the Far North.

A substantial worsening in the security situation would likely deter foreign investors and disrupt domestic food production, pushing up inflation and weakening household purchasing power,” BMI notes.

Yoweri Museveni

At 80 years old and seeking re-election, Museveni’s lack of a clear (or publicly announced) succession plan creates medium-term uncertainty.

The report believes that his son, General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, is the most likely successor, but concerns persist regarding Kainerugaba’s erratic approach to domestic and foreign policy, which is often outlined on X (formerly Twitter).

This raises questions about the future predictability of Uganda’s political and business environment, which has remained stable under Museveni’s extended rule since 1986.

Should Kainerugaba not be clearly named as a preferred successor, or if he fails to consolidate power, Museveni’s departure could trigger a factional struggle within the ruling National Resistance Movement.

Such internal conflict would not only undermine Uganda’s long-standing governing stability but could also expose interethnic grievances that have long been dormant under Museveni’s rule.

Indeed, in a 2024 Afrobarometer survey, 26.1% of Ugandan respondents said that their own ethnic group had been treated unfairly by the government, higher than in markets which have historically experienced ethnic-based conflict, including Côte d’Ivoire.

While highly unlikely, a marked deterioration in the domestic security situation would severely disrupt Uganda’s long-term economic outlook, especially as this hinges primarily on the commencement and ongoing operation of hydrocarbon extraction.