Oil shock from Iran crisis clouds global shift to clean energy

War in Iran has throttled tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, sending Brent crude to its highest level since 2022 and raising fresh concern that a renewed oil shock could slow the world’s shift toward renewable energy.

Governments and industries already leaning back on fossil fuels to manage tightening supply conditions now face a deeper test of their plans to cut reliance on oil.

Lorne Stockman of the United States based Oil Change International, a research and advocacy group that examines the true costs of fossil fuels, said the renewed volatility risks slowing the momentum behind cleaner power.

“It is a potential trap that could lock the world into further dependency on volatile, polluting energy at the precise moment when we should be accelerating toward a sustainable future and benefits all,” he said.

He noted that the world has faced similar shocks before.

“Just four years ago, when Russia invaded Ukraine, the world faced a similar situation.”

Stockman said fossil fuel interests are already moving to turn the moment to their advantage, pushing for more drilling and higher profits.

He pointed to the Russia and Ukraine war, where “studies have shown that the wealthiest nations, primarily in the United States, reaped the benefits while billions of everyday people struggled to pay their bills.”

Mohamed Adow, founder and chief executive of Energy Shift Africa, said the current turmoil should sharpen the case for cleaner power.

“The lesson for governments everywhere is clear. Accelerating the transition to clean energy is not just about climate. It is about energy security and economic stability,” he said.

“Nations that invest in renewable energy are far more resilient because the sun and wind cannot be blockaded, stockpiled or weaponised.”

Fossil fuel messaging returns

Stockman and Adow warn that the Iran crisis has revived fossil fuel messaging that had been losing ground. The industry is using the uncertainty to argue for expanded drilling and slower climate action.

In the United Kingdom, right wing commentators and oil groups are leaning into public anxiety over energy prices to push for new North Sea exploration.

“We urgently need greater supplies of secure domestically produced energy, including oil and gas which will be a critical part of the United Kingdom energy system and economy for decades,” said David Whitehouse, chief executive of Offshore Energies United Kingdom.

Michael Shanks, the United Kingdom energy minister, rejected those calls.

“More drilling would put the United Kingdom at further risk from volatile fossil fuel markets,” he said. “It is a short term, high carbon gamble that ignores the fundamental lesson of the Iran conflict.”

He added that renewed interest in Arctic drilling is “a desperate attempt to exploit the crisis to plunder the planet’s last frontiers.”

Ed Miliband, the United Kingdom energy secretary, said the country needs “home grown clean power that we can control.”

Africa’s Energy Paradox

The crisis is also reshaping energy politics across Africa, where the stakes are high and the contradictions sharper.

Producers such as Nigeria and Angola stand to gain from rising crude prices, yet their dependence on imported refined products leaves citizens exposed to painful increases in the cost of living.

Adow said the Iran conflict has revealed how both oil producing and non oil producing nations remain vulnerable.

“The current oil turmoil is a brutal reminder that dependence on fossil fuels leaves countries exposed to crises they cannot control,” he said.

Nigeria’s president, Bola Tinubu, removed fuel subsidies in 2023, a controversial but strategic step toward long term energy independence. Adviser Olu Verheijen said the goal was to “decouple from exactly this kind of market volatility.”

Yet Nigeria’s new eight billion dollar drilling projects raise questions about whether the country is ready to transition.

The more compelling story lies in the rapid rise of the Dangote Refinery. With a capacity of six hundred and fifty thousand barrels a day, it is reshaping regional energy security and exporting refined products to neighbours facing supply disruptions.

Experts argue that existing fossil resources should be used as a bridge to economic stability and eventually a diversified energy mix. The danger, they say, is that the Iran crisis encourages countries to treat oil wealth as a windfall rather than a finite resource to manage carefully.

“Europe got itself hooked on fossil fuels in the last century and is now going through the process of weaning itself off reliance on oil and gas,” Adow said.

“Africa does not need to fall into the same trap.”

Botswana’s move to secure a thirty percent stake in Angola’s six billion dollar Lobito refinery reflects both energy security concerns and a broader push to diversify away from diamonds.

Uganda, meanwhile, forecasts five hundred and seventy nine million dollars from oil exports in the twenty twenty six to twenty twenty seven financial year, as the five billion dollar East African Crude Oil Pipeline nears completion.

Surge in electric vehicles

Amid the turbulence, one sector is gaining momentum. Electric vehicle exports from China have jumped sharply, a trend linked to the spike in oil prices triggered by the Iran conflict.

The combined valuations of BYD, CATL and Sungrow have risen by seventy billion dollars since February twenty eight. CATL and BYD continue to dominate the global battery market, holding a combined share just below sixty percent.

Fitch Ratings said China’s battery manufacturers, with their cost and technology advantage, are “beneficiaries of the global energy transition” in the wake of the crisis. Prolonged oil and gas disruptions strengthen the case for battery storage across energy importing economies.

Goldman Sachs noted that China’s leadership in electric vehicles, batteries and power generation equipment positions it to benefit from rising global demand.

A recent Wood Mackenzie report said the competitive advantage of electric vehicles over petrol vehicles is arriving sooner in countries facing fuel instability.

“This is the market speaking clearly. When fossil fuels become expensive and unstable, consumers and businesses seek alternatives,” the report said.

Chinese automakers are expanding aggressively, supported by lower costs, faster product cycles and local manufacturing partnerships.

A fragile green supply chain

The clean energy transition depends on electric vehicles as much as on a global supply chain of batteries, solar panels and wind turbines.

The Strait of Hormuz is also a critical route for industrial gases and materials used in clean technology, including helium for semiconductor manufacturing and other components essential to renewable energy systems.

Some African countries are imposing export controls on key minerals to maximise profits, a move that could disrupt Chinese companies that have invested heavily in securing those supplies.

A prolonged Middle East conflict, combined with resource nationalism in Africa and rising oil prices, creates a perfect storm of supply chain fragility. Heavy mining machinery in Africa, which relies on fossil fuels, could grind to a halt if fuel becomes scarce.

The blockade also gives fossil fuel interests room to argue that the clean energy transition is just as exposed to global shocks as the old system.

Ultimately, the Iran crisis and the pressure around the Strait of Hormuz present a serious risk to the global shift toward cleaner energy. The concern is not that investment will stop, but that the pace of change could slow at the moment the world needs to move faster.

OPA News