South Africa’s energy transition goes big

By Bonface ORUCHO

Pretoria’s R2.23 trillion (approx. $128 billion USD) Integrated Resource Plan 2025 sets out to halve the country’s reliance on coal and add more than 100 gigawatts of new clean power, which is more than double of its current clean energy capacity, by 2039.

The blueprint marks one of the country’s most ambitious energy overhauls in decades and would yield jobs and boost its energy sovereignty.

While unveiling the plan in late October, Mineral Resources and Energy Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa referred to it as “the biggest investment programme of the post-apartheid era,” adding that the government will “add 105 gigawatts of new generation capacity.”

The new IRP outlines a historic shift in South Africa’s power mix: cutting coal’s share from 58% to 27% while ramping up renewables, gas and nuclear. It proposes 11 gigawatts of solar, 7.3 gigawatts of wind, 6 gigawatts of gas-to-power and 5.2 gigawatts of nuclear, plus new storage and a clean-coal demonstration plant. By 2039, total installed capacity is expected to reach 105 000 megawatts, more than double Eskom’s current output.

At the heart of the strategy lies a tension: cutting emissions without collapsing coal towns or the national grid. However, analysts argue the process, while politically charged and financially uncertain, is feasible.

“The energy sector is a highly political space,” argues Princess Mthombeni, founder of Africa for Nuclear. “Every president wants to leave their mark on policy. Under Zuma the plan had 9 500 megawatts of nuclear; under Ramaphosa it dropped to 2 500. Now we’re back to talking about nuclear again.”

The 2025 update revives a long-stalled nuclear agenda, positioning it alongside renewables and gas in what the government calls a balanced energy mix. Past litigation had halted earlier procurement efforts, with civil-society groups challenging Section 34 determinations that move projects from plan to implementation. The new IRP seeks to clear that uncertainty.

“For years, nuclear vendors and investors looked away because there was no clarity,” Mthombeni says. “Now that the policy is confirmed, partners can start preparing sites, logistics, and financing. That’s the first real step.”

For Pretoria, clarity couldn’t come sooner. Eskom’s ageing coal fleet is buckling under decades of neglect and R400 billion in debt, while load-shedding has battered small businesses and investor confidence.

“The IRP 2025 is a clear investment roadmap,” according to Eskom CEO Dan Marokane. “It signals to investors and citizens that South Africa has a focused pathway to reach NetZero inclusively and allows Eskom to play its role in a reformed power market.”

The IRP aims to retire 8 000 megawatts of coal by 2039, but without firming capacity from gas and nuclear, supply gaps could widen. Mthombeni insists the mix must balance decarbonisation with industrialisation. “Energy isn’t just about switching on the light,” she says. “It’s about roads, housing, logistics, and development.”

She points to Egypt’s El Dabaa Nuclear Power Plant as an example: “Five years ago there was nothing there. Today, it’s the biggest construction site in Africa, 200 companies, 34 000 people employed. That’s what mega projects do.”

Egypt’s 4.8-gigawatt El Dabaa plant, built by Rosatom at US$30 billion, will soon be twice the size of South Africa’s Koeberg station near Cape Town, whose two reactors supply about 1 900 megawatts. South Africa’s IRP sets out 5 200 megawatts of confirmed nuclear capacity, with another 4 200 to follow under a forthcoming Nuclear Industrialisation Plan. Sites at Duynefontein and Thyspunt have been identified pending environmental approval.

“These projects transform communities,” says Mthombeni. “When we say industrialisation, that’s what we mean; housing, transport, factories, training.”

To critics worried about nuclear safety or waste, she cites South Africa’s long record of safe management. “We’ve tracked every drum of waste since the 1960s,” she says. “No other energy sector manages its by-products so carefully.”

Industry experts welcomed the renewed nuclear stance. Dr Bismark Tyobeka, chair of the Ministerial Expert Panel on Nuclear, said the IRP marks “a return to the fundamentals of domestic nuclear capability,” calling the approach “ambitious but pragmatic.”

Globally, over 70 reactors are under construction, and even the United States has revived nuclear as a clean-energy option. Mthombeni argues that it gives South Africa a chance to lead rather than lag.

The IRP’s R2.23 trillion investment, about $128 billion, isn’t government spending but investor opportunity. “Vendors bring their own financing models,” she notes. “Rosatom covered 85% of Egypt’s costs. South Africa can attract similar partners without overstretching public funds.”

Cabinet, in its mid-October communiqué, said it had “approved the final draft Integrated Resource Plan (2025),” describing it as “a R2.23 trillion investment that will define South Africa’s energy mix for the future.”

The plan also revives small modular reactors (SMRs), compact nuclear units once pioneered under the Pebble Bed Modular Reactor programme, shelved in 2010. “We had a gem,” Mthombeni reflects. “Politics won over engineering. But now the world is building what we started.”

If revived, SMRs could power inland provinces without seawater access, easing grid strain and supporting industrial hubs in Mpumalanga and Limpopo.

Together with gas-to-power projects and renewable corridors, they could give South Africa the flexible base it needs for a stable transition. Across Africa, the ripple effects could be transformative. Coal still provides roughly a quarter of the continent’s electricity, much of it from South Africa.

A credible transition could tilt investor appetite toward renewables and hybrid systems across the Southern African Power Pool.

The International Energy Agency projects two-thirds of Africa’s new power this decade will come from renewables, but the IRP’s mix of renewables, nuclear and gas adds a distinctly African twist, one that values reliability and industrial growth as much as emissions.

Whether Pretoria can deliver is another question. Political turnover, court challenges and Eskom’s debt all pose risks. The IRP will be reviewed every two years, a cycle that can refine the plan or derail it.

Still, the blueprint marks a bold return to planning in a sector long defined by crisis management.

“The world is watching,” says Mthombeni. “We have the skills, the sites, and the science. What we need now is decisiveness.”