African markets defy global shocks as investors return to local assets

African companies are turning to stock markets and institutional investors for larger pools of long-term capital as stronger market performance creates a new opening for issuers.

The shift is putting pressure on companies and markets to improve disclosure, governance and access as investors demand better information before committing capital.

African issuers are increasingly testing both domestic and international markets as strong equity returns, large IPOs and the growth of digital businesses create new opportunities to attract institutional capital.

The challenge is becoming increasingly about giving investors the information, liquidity and structures needed to price African assets with confidence.

That question will take centre stage in New York next month when Wall Street Africa convenes the second edition of Bullish Africa on September 22, on the sidelines of the 81st United Nations General Assembly week.

The forum will bring together African issuers, institutional investors, financial institutions, regulators, exchanges and development finance institutions to examine what stands between investable African companies and institutional mandates.

“The constraint is increasingly not the absence of investable opportunities, but the availability of comparable, current and decision grade information required to underwrite them,” said Erick Asuma, co-founder and CEO of Wall Street Africa.

The case for deeper capital-market participation has strengthened after a year of strong returns across several African exchanges.

According to figures released by Wall Street Africa, the FTSE/JSE All Share Index returned 56.7% in US dollar terms in 2025, compared with 60.6% for Nigeria’s NGX, 51.4% for Kenya’s NSE and 49.9% for Egypt’s EGX 30.

The strong performance has come alongside continued private-capital activity. AVCA data cited by Bullish Africa shows that Africa recorded 530 private-capital transactions in 2025, an 8% increase in deal activity, even as total deal value declined 5% to US$5.1 billion.

The more significant shift is emerging in how African companies are accessing institutional capital.

Kenya Pipeline Company raised KES106.3 billion, about US$823 million, from the sale of a 65% stake earlier this year, in Kenya’s largest share sale since Safaricom’s 2008 listing.

The offer was 105.7% subscribed and attracted institutional investors including Uganda’s National Social Security Fund, which acquired a 20.15% stake. The transaction showed how African institutional capital can move directly into large corporate and infrastructure assets.

Nigeria is now preparing for a much larger test.

Dangote Petroleum Refinery is targeting up to US$5 billion from a planned October listing, potentially making it Africa’s largest IPO. The company has secured a US$1 billion underwriting programme, including a US$600 million private-placement tranche and a further US$400 million commitment linked to the IPO.

The transaction is attracting interest beyond Nigeria, with sovereign wealth funds and institutional investors from across Africa and the Caribbean considering the offering. Exchanges and investors in South Africa, Kenya, Egypt, Ghana and Rwanda have also shown interest.

The refinery is positioning the listing as a way to broaden ownership of a major African industrial asset while demonstrating the role institutional capital can play in financing large-scale industrial businesses.

Airtel Africa is taking a different route, using an international exchange to attract investors with specialist knowledge of emerging markets, fintech and payments.

The company has confirmed plans to list Airtel Money on the London Stock Exchange in the second half of 2026. The mobile-money unit is estimated to be worth more than US$10 billion, potentially making it one of the largest African fintech listings in recent years.

Airtel Money’s operating numbers provide the scale behind the planned listing. Annualised total transaction value rose 51.5% to more than US$245 billion, while its active customer base increased 23.3% to 56.5 million. Airtel Africa serves 189 million customers across 14 African markets.

Chief executive Sunil Taldar said London was selected partly because of its international investor base and its experience with emerging markets and financial technology.

The decision also shows how African companies are increasingly separating high-growth businesses from more capital-intensive operations and presenting them to investors who can value those businesses on their own terms.

Airtel Africa already has subsidiaries listed in Nigeria, Malawi, Uganda and Zambia. The Airtel Money transaction extends that multi-market strategy to an international capital market, connecting an African digital financial-services business with a deeper pool of global investors.

The move comes as mobile-money platforms become increasingly important financial infrastructure across the continent, providing payments and other financial services to consumers and businesses. The listing could give investors a clearer way to value the financial-services business separately from Airtel Africa’s telecoms infrastructure.

The push for capital is also extending beyond public equities.

Africa’s Trade and Investment Development Insurance plans to double its capital to US$2 billion over the next two years, according to its chief executive, as it seeks to provide guarantees that can help bring more private money into infrastructure.

The African Development Bank is also planning a US$125 million investment in ATIDI that would make it the institution’s largest shareholder. The broader effort aims to mobilise an estimated US$4 trillion held by African institutional investors.

That pool includes pension funds, sovereign wealth funds and other long-term investors, but much of the capital remains concentrated in government securities and other relatively liquid assets.

Unlocking more of that money for companies, infrastructure and productive assets requires more than capital. Investors also need stronger risk-sharing mechanisms, reliable disclosure and markets where assets can be compared and traded efficiently.

The same gap is visible in emerging-market private credit. A June survey by Gemcorp found that 42% of institutional investors planned to increase allocations to emerging-market private credit over the following two years, although less than 6% of respondents’ private-credit portfolios were allocated to emerging markets on average.

More than 70% of those investors still expected emerging-market private credit to carry higher risk than developed-market assets.