Africa’s growth holds firm amid global turbulence

Africa’s economies are projected to grow at 4.2 percent in 2026, moderating slightly from 4.4 percent in 2025, before rebounding to 4.4 percent in 2027.

The findings of the 2026 African Economic Outlook, released Tuesday at the African Development Bank Group Annual Meetings in Brazzaville, underscore the continent’s continued resilience amid geopolitical tensions, tighter global financial conditions, and supply chain disruptions.

According to the Bank’s flagship report, Africa’s growth in 2025 was supported by improved macroeconomic management, stronger agricultural output, elevated commodity prices, and ongoing structural reforms.

Mixed Regional Outlook

East Africa is expected to remain the continent’s fastest-growing region, though growth is projected to ease from 6.6 percent in 2025 to 5.9 percent in 2026, as rising energy and import costs linked to Middle East disruptions take their toll. A rebound to 6.4 percent is anticipated in 2027.

West Africa is forecast to remain relatively stable, with growth projected at 4.7 percent in 2026, broadly in line with the estimated 4.8 percent for 2025, supported by strong agricultural production and continued infrastructure investment.

North Africa is expected to grow at 4.0 percent in 2026 compared to 4.4 percent in 2025, reflecting weaker tourism demand from Gulf states and the broader effects of global supply chain disruptions.

Central Africa is one of the few regions projected to see an uptick, with growth rising marginally to 3.8 percent in 2026 from 3.6 percent in 2025, buoyed by sustained high oil prices.

Growth in Southern Africa is expected to remain subdued at 2.1 percent in 2026, from 2.3 percent in 2025, weighed down by weaker mining and agricultural output and higher energy costs.

Downside risks to the outlook remain significant. Inflation is projected to stay elevated at 10.4 percent in 2026, posing continued challenges to macroeconomic stability and growth prospects.

Persistent geopolitical tensions, alongside prolonged global supply chain and energy disruptions, could further strain fiscal and external balances through higher energy and fertilizer prices.

In addition, financial market volatility and exchange rate depreciations risk amplifying debt and fiscal vulnerabilities, while rising global fragmentation may intensify pressures on external financing flows, including official development assistance.

Closing Africa’s Financing Gap 

At the heart of the 2026 AEO report is a stark assessment of Africa’s development financing shortfall: the continent faces an annual gap exceeding $1.3 trillion to meet the Sustainable Development Goals.

The African Development Bank attributes the deficit to low domestic resource mobilisation, weak financial intermediation, and tightening external financing conditions.